Ironman race time prediction

Today I read this super interesting article about predicted race time for Ironman beginners. Without actually knowing if it would be realistic I’ve set a goal to complete my first Ironman in under 12 hours. But then I’ve never done long cycling races or long triathlons before. Therefor it was very interesting to read this article about a study from 2010 about first time Ironmans. The conclusion was that the best prediction of the race time could be estimated from a persons personal best (PB) on olympic distance triathlon (OD) and the PB of a marathon as in the formula below:
Ironman time prediction = 186.3 + 1.595 × (PB for Olympic-distance triathlon) + 1.318 × (PB for marathon).
So for me, with PB OD about 2h 30min and PB Marathon just under 4h this would be:
Ironman time prediction = 186.3 + 1.595 × 155 + 1.318 × 240 = 750 minutes (12h 30 min)
With that in mind, my target on 12 hours might seem a bit to optimistic. But on the other hand, I’ve never been in in this good shape before!

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